Wednesday, 27 May 2026
Economists expect that job growth slowed in June to 115,000 jobs and that the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. David Paul Morris/Bloomberg/Getty Images
U.S. private sector sheds 33,000 jobs in June
For the first time in over two years, the U.S. private sector experienced job losses last month, according to new figures released Wednesday by payroll provider ADP.
The ADP National Employment Report estimates that U.S. employers cut 33,000 private sector jobs in June. This marks a significant deviation from economists' forecasts, which had anticipated a net increase of 115,000 jobs, as reported by FactSet.
Nela Richardson, ADP’s chief economist, attributed the decline primarily to paused hiring initiatives. “While layoffs remain uncommon, employers’ reluctance to bring on new staff or replace departing workers resulted in job losses in June,” Richardson noted in a statement. “Despite this, the cooling labor market hasn’t yet weighed down pay growth.”
It’s important to note that ADP's monthly figures often diverge from the official federal jobs data. For instance, ADP's initial estimate for March 2023 was later revised to reflect a 53,000 job loss, whereas the official government report showed a net gain of 48,000 private sector positions out of a total 85,000 jobs added, partly due to a 30,000-job boost from state and local governments.
Still, ADP’s reports are frequently viewed as indicators of broader employment and wage trends. In March 2023, the pace of job growth slowed to its lowest monthly level since December 2020.
Looking ahead, the latest employment update from the Department of Labor is scheduled for release Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET—one day early in observance of the July 4th holiday. Economists project it will show 115,000 jobs added in June, down from the initial estimate of 139,000 for May, according to FactSet. They also expect the unemployment rate to rise by 0.1 percentage point to 4.3%, the highest level since October 2021.
Wednesday’s ADP result marks the first negative figure since March 2023—and, based on initial, unrevised numbers, it's the only decline seen in recent years, according to JPMorgan economist Abiel Reinhart.
Over the past year, the average absolute difference between ADP’s data and the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ figures has been about 75,000 jobs, Reinhart explained, in part because the federal numbers tend to be higher in the initial estimate and are later revised down.
“Beyond ADP’s month-to-month predictive performance, the larger narrative is a clear and steady weakening in the series since the start of the year,” Reinhart commented in a note to investors on Wednesday.
Nevertheless, several economists stated Wednesday that they were not adjusting their forecasts for Thursday’s federal jobs report in response to the ADP results.